BEYOND THE SPLASH

What if every baptism were treated not as the end of an event, but as the beginning of a purposeful shared journey toward Christlikeness?

We Planned the Wedding, But Who Is Helping with the Marriage?

I’ve heard that the median cost for a wedding these days in the United States is somewhere between $20,000 and $25,000. The average is even higher, landing between $33,000 and $36,000.1 Just imagine what you could do with an extra $30,000. If your rent is $1,700 a month, you could live for a year and a half without worrying about the landlord. If you’re making a $500 car payment, you could drive for almost four years before the bank calls. That’s a lot of cake and chicken dinners.

Now, have you ever wondered just how many hours a couple spends getting ready for the big day? If they’re doing most of it themselves, the experts say it’s somewhere between 250 and 400 hours.2 Let’s split the difference and call it 325 hours. That’s two months of full-time work, eight hours a day, every day. For that kind of time, you could walk from New York City to Miami (if your feet held out), or get halfway to learning a new language—maybe enough Spanish to order at the local taco truck with confidence.  

Having served as a pastor for more than a couple of decades, I’ve stood at the front for more weddings than I can count. I’ve watched the work, the planning, the expense, and the emotional rollercoaster that comes with “the big day.”

Wouldn’t it be something if couples put even half as much effort into preparing for the marriage as they do for the wedding? The wedding is over in a day or maybe a weekend if you stretch it. The marriage, Lord willing, is meant to last a lifetime.

And sure enough, at every reception, there’s always someone at a table in the back corner who leans over and says, “Well, I hope it works out.” Don’t we all.

If I’m honest, we Baptists sometimes treat baptism the same way. Baptism is a moment, but “walking in newness of life” is a lifelong journey. Could it be that we treat baptism like couples treat the wedding—crossing our fingers, saying a prayer, and hoping God helps them figure out the rest?

Now, baptism isn’t a wedding, but the comparison does shine a light on a familiar church problem. We get the testimony ready, fill the baptistery, invite the family, snap the picture, celebrate the obedience, and report the number. Then Monday rolls around. Old habits are still strong. The Bible can feel overwhelming. Prayer might feel awkward. Family members may not get it. The new believer is sincere, but may have no clue how to follow Jesus through a regular week.

The Sunday splash is real. But who’s walking with them on Monday? That’s the real question, and it comes from a place of honesty and even some nervous joy. Stick with me.

The Good News and the Obligation It Creates

Southern Baptists do have reason to rejoice. The 2025 Annual Church Profile reported 263,075 baptisms, the fifth consecutive annual increase and the highest total since 2017.3 Adults aged 30 and older accounted for 33 percent, young adults for another 20 percent, and youth for 25 percent.4 These are not merely numbers. They are people publicly identifying with the crucified and risen Christ.

But doesn’t every baptism create a discipleship obligation? In the Great Commission, baptism and teaching sit inside the one command to make disciples (Matt. 28:19–20). The Baptist Faith and Message describes baptism as identification with Christ and with “the resurrection to walk in newness of life.”5 The water marks a beginning. The walk requires a church.

Dallas Willard often described baptism in this passage as the believer's union with the reality of the Father, Son, and Holy Spirit. It is not about making sure the person is wet from head to toe. It's the represented reality of the believers’ immersion into the triune God. Willard paraphrases Matthew 28:18-20 this way:

"I have been given say over all things in heaven and in the earth. As you go, therefore, make disciples of all kinds of people, submerge them in Trinitarian Presence, and show them how to do everything I have commanded. And now look: I am with you every minute until the job's done.”6

When we celebrate new life but leave the new believer to invent the walk, we have completed the first half of a sentence and left the second unsaid. We get the picture, but we miss the reality.

How Tomorrow’s Ghost Roster Is Made

The Ghost Roster is not made up only of inherited names and people who moved years ago. Sometimes tomorrow’s Ghost Roster is created one unaccompanied baptism at a time. A person is baptized, applauded, added to the roll, and quietly left to find a class, build relationships, understand the church, establish spiritual habits, and survive doubt without anyone noticing whether the person is connected.

I’m not saying this is everyone’s experience. However, it has been mine. 

But what do the statistics say? I’m glad you asked. Lifeway’s State of Discipleship study found that only 52 percent of Protestant pastors say their church has an intentional plan for discipling individuals. 71 percent believe discipleship can be measured, but only 30 percent say their church has specific methods for measuring it.7 Only 29 percent regularly evaluate discipleship progress, while 38 percent say no one is responsible for the church’s discipleship programs. In churches averaging fewer than fifty, that “no one” reaches 50 percent.8

Everybody is for discipleship. Most of us assume it’s happening. But too often, if you ask who’s responsible for the next step, you get a lot of blank stares.

Why Is a Scorecard So Hard?

The Lifeway study establishes the gap, but it did not directly ask pastors why they lack a specific measurement method. The surrounding findings nevertheless point toward several likely reasons.

• We do not have the same definition of discipleship. Pastors name Bible study, prayer, mentoring, service, doctrine, groups, obedience, mission, and many other elements. Agreement that discipleship matters is stronger than agreement about what a disciple looks like.

• Activity often is a substitute for a pathway. A church can have sermons, classes, groups, studies, and events galore, but if there’s no clear destination, no sequence, no one in charge, and no handoff, it’s just a busy calendar. You can have a full schedule and still be going nowhere.

• Relationships rarely happen organically. Pastors overwhelmingly say discipleship happens relationally, but mentoring takes trusted people, training, time, boundaries, and follow-through. You know the old saying, “Fail to plan and you plan to fail.” Saying discipleship just happens organically is only half true—and the lazy half at that. We have to be intentional about making those connections.

• Limited capacity is a real issue. Pastors report too few disciple-makers, inadequate training, competing priorities, low interest, and insufficient time.9

• The most important parts of spiritual growth aren’t easy to count. You can track attendance and course completion, but humility, repentance, fortitude, courage, love, and depending on the Spirit don’t fit neatly in a spreadsheet. They may not be easy to count, but you can still see them when they show up.

• Honest, humble evaluation can tell us the truth. A church might find out that no one owns the process, the programs don’t connect, or that baptized believers are slipping through the cracks. Measuring isn’t just a technical thing—it takes pastoral courage. Truth is not our enemy. Facts are our friends. Pastors need humility and honesty to face what’s really happening.

Benchmarks Are Mile Markers, Not Finish Lines

Sometimes churches worry that if we get too clear, we’ll end up with a performance-based culture. But clarity isn’t legalism. A mile marker doesn’t make the journey or prove the traveler is healthy—it just tells us where we are and keeps us honest about the road we’ve traveled.

A church ought to know if someone has confessed Christ, received baptism counseling, attended orientation, been baptized, finished a basic Christian growth class, connected with other believers, started serving, learned to share their testimony, and had a six- and twelve-month check-in. These aren’t grades on holiness. They’re just signs that we’ve built a road to walk on, instead of pointing people off toward the horizon and hoping they find their way.

A Pathway a Normal Church Can Actually Use

#	Benchmark	Usual window	Church’s next faithful action
1	Confess Christ as Savior and Lord	Before baptism	Hear the story; clarify repentance, faith, and the gospel.
2	Complete baptism counseling	Before baptism	Explain baptism, assurance, church membership, and the first ninety days.
3	Discover Our Church	Before or within 30 days	Introduce covenant belonging, beliefs, mission, leaders, and next steps.
4	Baptism	Public beginning	Celebrate public obedience and identify the named post-baptism shepherd.
5	Basics of Christian Growth	Weeks 1–8	Teach and practice Scripture, prayer, worship, church, obedience, service, witness, and perseverance.
6	Relational belonging	By day 30	Connect the believer with a mentor, micro-group, Sunday School class, or small group.
7	Practices becoming rhythms	By day 90	Discuss what is being practiced, what is changing, and where help is needed.
8	Character-growth conversation	Around month 6	Look beneath activity for roots, virtues, fruit, obstacles, and evidence of grace.
9	Service and witness	Months 6–9	Begin a healthy service role; learn to share a testimony and pray for unbelievers.
10	Year-one review and multiplication	Around month 12	Celebrate growth, name the next season, and consider readiness to help another.

This sequence is a framework, not a set of rigid checkpoints. “Discover Our Church” might happen before baptism or right after. A teenager, a shift worker, someone with cognitive challenges, or a new believer coming out of a crisis will all need a different pace. We’ve all seen that. Flexibility is important, but don’t let anyone slip through the cracks. The support we give should fit the person, not the other way around.

What Should We Expect after Baptism?

At baptism, the church should look for a credible profession of repentance and faith, a basic understanding of the gospel, and a willing intention to follow Christ. We’re not looking for a mature Christian life offered as proof that a new Christian life has begun.

After baptism, look for responsiveness, not expertise. Is the person willing to meet, learn, worship, ask honest questions, receive correction, practice basic habits, and take the next step? A new believer might be inconsistent, but don’t let them become invisible. They may be confused, but they can be teachable. They may struggle, but they shouldn’t be left alone.

People start their walk with Christ from all sorts of places—spiritually, emotionally, relationally, mentally, and even physically. We meet them where the Lord saves them, walk with them, and trust that they’ll walk with the Lord. It’s going to be messy and often slow. There will be hard days, but there will be good ones too. Patience is a fruit of the Spirit, and it usually grows best in the soil of discipleship.

Two Scorecards, One Disciple

The safest way to measure discipleship is to separate what the church can promise from what only God can produce.

Scorecard One—Church Stewardship. Was a mentor named? Did contact occur? Was the person taught, connected, and invited to take the next step? Did the thirty-day, ninety-day, six-month, and twelve-month conversations happen? Checkboxes belong here because these are commitments the church can keep or neglect.

Scorecard Two—Christian Character Growth. Is the believer learning to live by the Spirit, receive grace, see life through biblical truth, develop Beatitude-shaped roots, practice the means of grace, grow in virtue, and bear Christlike fruit in community and mission? No holiness GPA belongs here. This is a prayerful conversation about direction, dependence, fruit, and a next step.

Lifeway’s national work identifies eight broad discipleship signposts: Bible engagement, obedience, service, witness, faith, seeking God, relationships, and living unashamed.10 Those are useful categories; the Character Tree supplies a complementary picture of how grace, practices, virtues, and fruit belong together.

From Deep Roots to Wide Witness

This is where the Christian Character Tree from my Wide Witness, Deep Roots blog series comes in handy. A course-completion list tells us if the material was covered, but the Tree asks what kind of person is actually being formed. It gives the church a map, but doesn’t turn spiritual growth into a factory assembly line.

Tree image	Formation area	A better question
Atmosphere	Holy Spirit	Is the believer learning dependence rather than religious self-effort?
Sunlight	God’s grace	Is the believer living from acceptance in Christ rather than trying to earn it?
Soil	Truth, goodness, beauty	Is Scripture reshaping what seems real, desirable, and worthy?
Seed	New life in Christ	Is gospel identity taking root through repentance, faith, and assurance?
Roots	Beatitude postures	Are humility, sorrow over sin, meekness, hunger, mercy, purity, peacemaking, and endurance deepening?
Nutrients	2 Peter 1:5–7	Is the believer making grace-enabled effort toward virtue, knowledge, self-control, steadfastness, godliness, affection, and love?
Sap	Means of grace	Are Scripture, prayer, worship, confession, fellowship, service, and witness becoming rhythms?
Trunk	Prudence, justice, temperance, fortitude	Is the believer becoming wise, just, self-governed, and courageous under pressure?
Limbs	Faith, hope, love	Is life reaching Godward and outward through trust, assurance, and love?
Fruit	Visible Christlikeness	Is the Spirit’s fruit appearing, especially when life is hard?
Orchard	Church, witness, multiplication	Is the believer contributing to the spiritual good of others?

The Tree isn’t meant to be another ladder to climb. Christian growth is more like a garden. The Spirit works through grace, truth, habits, relationships, trials, and time. Growth will be uneven. Sometimes pruning looks like loss before it looks like fruit. The goal isn’t to tape religious fruit onto dead branches. The goal is for the life of Jesus to grow from the inside out.

Dallas Willard described spiritual formation as the renovation of the inner person—thought, feeling, choice, body, relationships, and soul—under Christ.11 The Tree makes that whole-person aim visible while keeping grace and the Spirit prior to effort.

How to Describe Growth without Grading It

At each relational checkpoint, the believer and mentor can choose one description for each area they discuss: not yet introduced, learning, practicing with help, increasingly owned, or helping another. The description is not a rank. A person may be helping another learn prayer while still needing help with forgiveness.

Keep it simple: record four things—evidence of grace, an obstacle or question, one next step, and what support the church can give. Don’t write down private confessions, diagnoses, or details that don’t belong in a ministry file. Track enough to show you care, not enough to make people feel watched.

The Pastor Cannot Be the Entire System

When I was a pastor, I’d hear words like "pathway" and "scorecard" and feel a knot in my stomach. It sounded like another meeting, another spreadsheet, and another job that would end up on my desk whether anyone admitted it or not.

That reaction isn’t laziness. Pastors are already juggling preaching, counseling, hospital visits, conflict, administration, outreach, funerals, emergencies, facilities, family, and their own souls. Barna says pastors struggle most with relationships and personal well-being.12 A system that depends on pastors burning the candle at both ends isn’t a discipleship system—it’s a recipe for burnout.

Ephesians 4 says leaders are to equip the saints so the body builds itself up in love. The pastor’s job is to keep discipleship at the center, teach the vision, train the first leaders, and handle the exceptions. Someone else—maybe a post-baptism shepherd—keeps up with the list. Mentors and groups handle the relationships and practice. The church welcomes the new believer as family.

Robert Coleman emphasized Jesus’ relational pattern of association, demonstration, delegation, supervision, and reproduction.13 Marshall and Payne likewise argue that structures should serve the growth of people in the gospel rather than becoming ends in themselves.14

Teach It Until It Can Be Lived

A curriculum is useful, but information must move toward practice. A simple learning cycle is:

1. Explain one biblical truth and why it matters.

2. Model how a Christian lives it.

3. Practice the next action together.

4. Reflect on what happened and what God exposed.

5. Repeat with support until the practice becomes more natural.

6. Multiply by helping the growing believer show someone else.

Small groups can help: Lifeway found that consistent participation is associated with higher discipleship scores, while warning that attendance alone is not maturity.15 The relational setting matters because formation needs truth, example, practice, correction, encouragement, and time.

Start at Ground Zero

If your church doesn’t have a process right now, you don’t need a big launch. You just need a faithful start:

• Name one owner. Give one trusted person authority to keep the list and prompt follow-up.

• Gather one eight-week cohort. Teach several new believers together rather than multiplying pastor-led meetings.

• Train two or three mentors while the cohort meets. Let them observe, participate, and gradually lead.

• Use the two scorecards. Track church promises clearly and discuss character growth humbly.

• Review the list for fifteen minutes monthly. Celebrate movement, notice disconnection, and assign the next contact.

Beyond the Splash

We don’t have to pick between full baptisteries and deep believers, between evangelism and discipleship, or between celebrating the wedding and building the marriage. Jesus put together what we often split apart: make disciples, baptize them, teach them to obey, and do it together.

The most important question after the water settles isn’t, “Did we get the picture?” It’s, “Who knows this person now?” Who’s going to call? Who will open the Bible with them? Who will listen to the first doubt without panicking? Who will notice when they’re missing? Who will celebrate their first costly obedience? Who will help them become the kind of disciple who can help someone else?

Baptism deserves a celebration. Discipleship deserves a spot on the calendar.

The splash is just the beginning. Let’s make sure the walk gets started too.

Endnotes

Scripture quotations and references are from the English Standard Version unless otherwise noted.

1. Paperlust Admin, "Average Wedding Cost in 2026: Full US Budget Breakdown," Paperlust, June 23, 2026,https://paperlust.co/blog/average-wedding-cost-2026/.

2. Ramblewood Co., "What Is a Full-Service Wedding Planner? Duties, Costs & Benefits Explained," Ramblewood Co., accessed August 18, 2026,https://www.ramblewoodco.com/what-is-a-full-service-wedding-planner-duties-costs-benefits-explained

3. Aaron Earls, “Southern Baptists See Attendance and Baptism Gains amid Membership Declines,” Lifeway Research, May 5, 2026, https://research.lifeway.com/2026/05/05/southern-baptists-see-attendance-and-baptism-gains-amid-membership-declines/

4. Aaron Earls, “Adults Account for Most Baptisms in SBC Congregations,” Lifeway Research, August 13, 2026, https://research.lifeway.com/2026/08/13/adults-account-for-most-baptisms-in-sbc-congregations/.

5. Southern Baptist Convention, “The Baptist Faith and Message 2000,” arts. VI–VII, amended June 14, 2023, https://bfm.sbc.net/bfm2000/.

6. Dallas Willard, The Great Omission: Reclaiming Jesus's Essential Teachings on Discipleship (San Francisco: HarperSanFrancisco, 2006), xi–xii.

7. Lifeway Research staff, “Lifeway Research’s State of Discipleship Insights Report Equips Leaders for Intentional Disciple Making,” Lifeway Newsroom, June 3, 2026, https://news.lifeway.com/2026/06/03/lifeway-researchs-state-of-discipleship-insights-report-equips-leaders-for-intentional-disciple-making/

8. Aaron Earls, “Most Churches Rarely Evaluate Their Discipleship Strategies,” Lifeway Newsroom, October 7, 2025, https://news.lifeway.com/2025/10/07/most-churches-rarely-evaluate-their-discipleship-strategies/.

9. Aaron Earls, “Lifeway Research Finds Few Pastors Believe Discipleship Tops Their Churches’ Efforts,” Lifeway Newsroom, November 4, 2025, https://news.lifeway.com/2025/11/04/lifeway-research-finds-few-pastors-believe-discipleship-tops-their-churches-efforts/

10. Lifeway Research staff, “Lifeway Research’s State of Discipleship Insights Report.”

11. Dallas Willard, Renovation of the Heart: Putting on the Character of Christ (Colorado Springs, CO: NavPress, 2002).

12. Barna Group, “The Strengths & Struggles of Today’s Pastors,” June 10, 2025, https://www.barna.com/trends/pastoral-flourishing/.

13. Robert E. Coleman, The Master Plan of Evangelism, 2nd ed. (Grand Rapids, MI: Revell, 2006).

14. Colin Marshall and Tony Payne, The Trellis and the Vine: The Ministry Mind-Shift That Changes Everything (Kingsford, Australia: Matthias Media, 2009).

15. Aaron Earls, “Small Group Participation Linked to Higher Discipleship Scores, Lifeway Research Finds,” Lifeway Newsroom, August 4, 2026, https://news.lifeway.com/2026/08/04/small-group-participation-linked-to-higher-discipleship-scores-lifeway-research-finds/.

THE PASTORAL TOLL OF THE GHOST ROSTER: Pt. 2 OF 2

If you ever want to see a pastor stop mid-sentence and stare off into the distance, just ask two questions: “How many members does your church have?” and “How many of them are really connected?” The awkward silence that follows usually speaks louder than either number ever could.

Welcome to part 2 of The Ghost Roster. In part one, I walked through the seven forces that helped create this strange phenomenon. Just to jog your memory, the Ghost Roster is the credibility gap between the names a church claims and the people it can actually know, shepherd, disciple, and hold to any meaningful membership covenant. This gap has two sides. On one side, you have the folks who are on the roll but nowhere to be found. On the other, just as tricky, are the regular attenders who never quite make it onto the membership list.

These seven forces don’t just stay tucked away in a spreadsheet. They show up in the pastor’s study, the deacons’ meeting, the budget talks, the volunteer schedule, and sometimes, if you’re not careful, right at the pastor’s own kitchen table.

The Pastoral Toll: Shepherding a Flock You Cannot Clearly See

Even on its best day, pastoral ministry is not for the faint of heart. When a pastor is called to shepherd a church, he needs to know who his flock actually is. Pastors care deeply. We want to be faithful to our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ, the Great Shepherd. But how can you rest easy if you’re not even sure who you’re supposed to be shepherding? In a way, the Ghost Roster creates a ghost congregation. I’ve found six problems or tolls this brings to a pastor. Let’s walk through them together.

Research caution: I found no national study that isolates the Ghost Roster as an independent cause of pastoral burnout, resignation, or declining satisfaction. The pastoral effects below are a reasoned synthesis in my estimation of the available research on attendance frequency, membership, workload, role expectations, isolation, and pastoral well-being. The roster gap should be understood as a pressure multiplier—not a proven single cause.

1. It Creates Role Confusion

A pastor is called to shepherd a flock, not just provide religious content to an audience. But when folks show up for preaching, worship, children’s ministry, counseling, and crisis care without ever really connecting, the pastor can start to feel less like an under-shepherd and more like an event planner who just happens to own a Bible.

Current research makes the tension clearer. In 2026, 58 percent of senior Protestant pastors said they felt more confident in their calling than when they entered ministry, a substantial recovery from the pandemic. Yet only 52 percent were very satisfied with the vocation, down from 72 percent in 2015, and only 43 percent were very satisfied with their present church ministry.1 Pastors may still believe deeply in the call while becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the job as it is actually structured.

2. It Produces a Crowd-to-Core Mismatch

A church might need the parking, children’s space, counseling load, security, communication, and pastoral accessibility of a big congregation, but still be running on the giving, serving, voting, and leadership of a much smaller core. The sanctuary may look like ‘large church,’ but the volunteer schedule and budget are whispering ‘small church’ behind your back.

That mismatch doesn't create every pastoral burden, but it can intensify an already demanding role. Lifeway’s research reports that 71 percent of pastors feel on call twenty-four hours a day, 63 percent say the role is frequently overwhelming, and 50 percent say its demands are often greater than they can handle.2  When the ministry footprint grows faster than the committed base, the pastor and a handful of faithful people carry the difference.

3. It Distorts the Metrics and Invites Shame

A bloated roll can make a church look healthier than it really is. A big attendance number packed with loosely connected people can do the same. That leaves pastors stuck between two numbers that don’t tell the whole story: one counts people who aren’t there, and the other counts people whose commitment is about as clear as the water in the Flint River.

That’s when comparison and imposter syndrome sneak in. The pastor starts to wonder why a full room doesn’t lead to enough teachers, deacons, givers, disciple-makers, or missionaries. It’s all too easy to take what is really a structural or cultural problem and turn it into a personal verdict: ‘If I were a better preacher or leader, these folks would commit.’ I’ll be honest, that thought haunted me more than once in my last pastorate. It’s not fair, and it’s not healthy.

4. It Blurs and Deepens the Burden of Pastoral Care

Hebrews 13:17 says church leaders keep watch over souls as those who will give an account. An inaccurate roll turns that serious responsibility into fog. Who has asked this church to watch over them? Who is drifting? Who is homebound? Who moved? Who is attending somewhere else? Who is spiritually endangered? Who has quietly died without the church even knowing? 

I can remember more than one time when someone passed away, and a family member called the church office asking us to do the funeral. The deceased hadn’t darkened the doors in over a decade, and the family member—who had never set foot in the church—expected us to drop everything and serve them. Of course, we want to help anyone in need in the name of Christ, but sometimes you just have to shake your head and wonder. 

A faithful pastor doesn’t see those questions as just paperwork. He sees names, faces, families, and souls. That’s why working through the roll can be so draining: every correction is a story, and some of those stories come with grief, conflict, or years of being overlooked.

5. It Can Increase Isolation

Pastors can be surrounded by people and still feel deeply alone. Barna found that more than two in five pastors often feel isolated, and only one in three has someone outside the church they can really confide in.3 When you’re already trying to hold together a crowd without a clear center, it’s tempting to keep your frustrations bottled up instead of risking looking negative or unsuccessful. I’m not making this up. I’ve been there, and it’s not healthy. 

The stakes are not theoretical. Barna’s latest tracking found that 24 percent of senior Protestant pastors had seriously considered leaving full-time ministry during the previous year. The number has improved since the pandemic peak, but it still represents nearly one in four pastors. Strong relational support is associated with a lower likelihood of considering departure.4

6. It Tempts the Pastor to Settle

The most dangerous response isn’t always quitting. Sometimes it’s quiet surrender: you stop teaching about membership, stop inviting people to serve, stop reaching out to inactive members, stop practicing loving accountability, and just keep the weekly event rolling along. At that point, the Ghost Roster isn’t just a problem; it becomes the culture.

Discouragement explains why we’re tempted to settle, but it doesn’t have to set the course. Pastors can push back against settling by tying their resilience to a biblical view of success and by making sure the whole congregation shares in the work of shepherding.

How Pastors Can Resist Settling and Build Resilience

• Remember, your identity is anchored in Christ, not in the numbers. A pastor’s worth isn’t measured by being the leader of a 300-attendance, 100-member church. You are a loved and redeemed child of God, an under-shepherd accountable to the Chief Shepherd. Attendance matters. Membership matters. But neither number defines your value.

• Use a faithful dashboard, not just a single scoreboard. Track average worship attendance, active members, regular nonmember attenders, inactive members, baptisms, small-group participation, serving, giving, and signs of disciple-making. No single number can capture the full health of a church.

• Invest deeply in your covenanted core, but don’t forget the crowd. Jesus ministered to crowds and formed disciples. Pastors should welcome spiritual curiosity, but focus leadership development and shared responsibility on those who are ready to walk in covenant.

• Clarify your role and share the load. Barna’s research found that extended rest, delegation, and matching responsibilities to a pastor’s gifts and limits are some of the best ways to fight burnout—and some of the hardest steps to take.5 If a church wants a healthy pastor, it must make shared ministry possible.

• Build relationships outside the fishbowl. Every pastor needs trusted friends, peer pastors, mentors, and sometimes a counselor or spiritual director. Your spouse may be your first support, but they shouldn’t have to be your only support. Go to some of your Baptist Association events. Come to the pastor roundtables and share, commiserate, and argue if you need to. At the very least, you’ll leave with a hug and a prayer. Who knows, you might even make a friend.

  
  

• Treat roll work as soul care. A shepherd’s audit isn’t just about cleaning up a spreadsheet. It’s about reaching out to the wandering, caring for those who are hindered, helping those who have moved connect with another church, and telling the truth when we can no longer affirm an active covenant.

  
  

Pastoral resilience and congregational reform go hand in hand. We can’t just ask pastors to toughen up while leaving the structures that wear them out untouched. If you want to know what to do next, you can turn this conviction into a practical plan for the whole church. Just look at the suggestions in the previous blog: The Ghost Roster, Part 1.

Endnotes

1. Barna Group, “New Research: Pastors’ Sense of Calling Is Up—Satisfaction Is Lagging,” May 5, 2026, https://www.barna.com/research/pastors-calling-satisfaction-research-2026/.

2. Lifeway Research, The Way Forward: Insights Report (2025), 26–27, https://research.lifeway.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/The-Way-Forward-Insights-Report.pdf.

3. Barna Group, “Inside the Friendship Gap for Pastors,” January 13, 2026, https://www.barna.com/trends/pastors-friendship-gap/.

4. Barna Group, “Pastors Quitting Ministry: New Barna Data Shows a Shift,” January 27, 2026, https://www.barna.com/trends/pastors-quitting-ministry-barna-data/.

5. Barna Group, “What Relieves Pastoral Burnout—and What Doesn’t,” July 6, 2026, What Relieves Pastoral Burnout—and What Doesn’t | Barna Group.

THE GHOST ROSTER: WHY YOUR PEWS ARE FULL, BUT YOUR MEMBERSHIP IS DYING, PART 1

Series Introduction: Stewarding This Unique Moment

Welcome to the first post in a seven-part series where we’ll roll up our sleeves and take a good, honest look at some of the most pressing challenges and opportunities facing Southern Baptist churches today. While I’m writing with Georgia Baptists in mind, I suspect much of what we’ll discuss will ring true for evangelical churches just about anywhere.

For our pastors in the Fairburn Baptist Association, I'm hosting a pastor roundtable on this very topic to discuss it's implications for us and how pastors locally may deal with this issue. It is the first of six roundtables starting Monday, August 17, 2026 from 10:00–11:30 AM at our offices. You can find out more about this by clicking the button below.

Pastor Roundtables

Speaking of pastors, if you’ve been in ministry for more than a minute, you’ve probably felt it: that odd tension in the sanctuary on Sunday morning. The headlines keep shouting about denominational decline, but at the same time, many of us are seeing worship attendance tick upward, baptismal waters stir, and new faces lean in, curious about Christian community. It’s as if decline and opportunity are sitting side by side in the same pew.

So, how do we make the most of this odd moment God has given us? Over the next seven posts, we’ll take a closer look at some issues that could make all the difference in whether our churches stay healthy, strong, and fruitful for years to come.

• The Ghost Roster, Part 1: Why Your Pews Are Full but Your Membership Is Dying (this post), Part 2: The Pastoral Toll of the Ghost Roster

• Beyond the Splash: Turning Sunday Baptisms into Monday Disciples

• The Missing Generation: Rewriting the Playbook for Gen Z and Millennials

• Unplugged Community: The Irreplaceable Power of the Physically Gathered Church

• Local Flock, National Noise: Leading Your Church Through Denominational Drama

• Prophetic, Not Partisan: Guarding the Gospel in a Hyper-Polarized Culture

• The Bi-vocational Revolution: Saving the Small Church Before It Is Too Late

Let’s start with one of the most head-scratching paradoxes in Southern Baptist life today. The numbers are both encouraging and sobering, and—like most things in church life—they need a little more careful interpretation than a headline can give.

The Paradox in the Pews

The 2025 Annual Church Profile reports 12,331,954 Southern Baptist members—the nineteenth consecutive year of membership decline. At the same time, average in-person weekly worship attendance rose 3.63 percent to 4,460,910; small-group and Sunday School participation rose 3.24 percent to 2,650,291; and baptisms rose 4.96 percent to 263,075. That was the fifth consecutive year of baptism growth, something the SBC had not experienced in seventy-five years.1

Now, before we become too excited (or too discouraged), let’s be clear: these numbers don’t mean more people are attending than belong. In fact, across the country, reported membership is still nearly three times the average weekly attendance. And the data don’t tell us exactly how many folks in the pews are actually members. What they do show is this: membership and participation are moving in opposite directions, and that’s worth paying attention to.

We also need to be honest about what these totals can and can’t tell us. In 2025, only 61 percent of SBC churches reported at least one nonfinancial item, and some of the missing numbers were filled in with older data. So, the rebound might actually be bigger than what’s on paper, but we shouldn’t try to squeeze answers out of these numbers that they just aren’t meant to give.2

Which brings us to the heart of the matter. Before we start diagnosing causes, we need to put a finer point on the real problem.

What I Mean by the “Ghost Roster”

Traditionally, a church’s “ghost roster” refers to names that remain on the membership roll even though the people are deceased, have moved, have joined another church, cannot be located, or have not participated in the life of the congregation for years. In that older and still very common problem, the membership roll is much larger than actual attendance. If you've been in a legacy church like I have, you know exactly what I mean.

A newer, opposite problem appears in some congregations—especially younger churches, replants, and churches reaching mobile communities. Regular attenders may worship, give, serve, and place their children in ministry while remaining outside formal membership. In those churches, attendance can equal or exceed reported membership. Thom Rainer has observed both patterns, while noting that the inactive-member problem remains more common.3

Working definition: In this blog, the “Ghost Roster” is the credibility gap between the names a church claims and the people it can actually know, shepherd, disciple, and hold in accountable covenant. The gap has two sides: members who are absent and regular attenders who have not become members.

This distinction really does matter. There’s a world of difference between a name left in the database because someone has gone home to be with the Lord, a homebound member, a college student away for a semester, a family quietly testing the waters after being hurt, and a longtime attender who just prefers to stay on the sidelines. Healthy churches know better than to lump all these folks into one big category.

Once we start sorting out the two sides of the roster, the reasons for the gap become a little clearer—and a lot harder to blame on just one thing.

Seven Forces Behind the Gap

The studies out there all measure different groups and ask different questions, so we can’t really rank the causes with empirical accuracy. But what they do give us is a clearer picture of several forces all working together—sometimes in ways that surprise us. I actually started this with just three forces, but as I did the research discovered more behind the gap. I’ve ranked them in a descending order.

1. The Deepest Issue: What People Believe the Church Is

Theologically, the deepest issue is a weakened understanding of the local church. Southern Baptists confess that a New Testament church is a local congregation of baptized believers “associated by covenant in the faith and fellowship of the gospel.”4 Membership is not simply having a name in church software. It is a visible, accountable way of saying, “These are my people, these are my shepherds, and this is the body with whom I will worship, serve, give, witness, forgive, and persevere.”

Yet the 2025 State of Theology study found that only 61 percent of Americans with evangelical beliefs agreed that every Christian has an obligation to join a local church, while 44 percent said personal or family worship can replace church attendance. Even regular churchgoers were divided: 57 percent affirmed an obligation to join.5 That is a serious discipleship problem. Still, it should not be mislabeled as the proven largest immediate reason that attenders remain nonmembers.

2. Inertia Is Often More Common Than Rebellion

Lifeway Research offers a needed correction to the idea that sanctuaries are packed with people defiantly rejecting membership. Among Protestant churchgoers who attend at least monthly, 82 percent say they are members of their church. Of the 17 percent who are not members, 39 percent say they have not attended long enough, and 22 percent say they simply have not gotten around to joining. Smaller shares say they do not see the value of membership (15 percent), do not believe it is biblical (8 percent), do not want the responsibility (7 percent), or do not want to be under church authority (3 percent).6

That shifts the pastoral question. Sure, some folks do resist covenant, but many are just waiting for a little clarity, a warm invitation, some time, or a process that actually makes sense. Our job as the church is to teach why membership matters and then make the next step as clear as possible.

3. The Weekly Rhythm Has Thinned

Barna’s 2025 tracking found that churched adults attend an average of 1.6 weekends per month—roughly two out of every five weekends. Gen Z churchgoers averaged 1.9 weekends and Millennials 1.8, an encouraging increase from pandemic lows and, for the first time in decades, higher than older generations.7 The good news is that younger adults are showing up more often. The challenge is that even our most regular generations are present less than half the time.

Someone who comes to church eighteen or twenty times a year may honestly feel connected, but they’re likely missing membership classes, relationship-building moments, ministry invitations, and the kind of steady teaching that helps roots grow deep. Not to mention the difficulty in filling your leadership pipeline. When attendance gets thin, it’s harder to build real belonging and even harder to keep ministry momentum going.

4. Younger Adults Are Less Likely to Join—But the Picture Is Nuanced

Ryan Burge’s analysis of the 2023–24 Pew Religious Landscape Study found that only 25-30 percent of Americans born in 1980 or later belong to a house of worship. That figure includes the religiously unaffiliated and should not be confused with membership among regular evangelical attenders. Among Christians born in 1990 or later who attend weekly, membership is closer to 75 percent; even among the youngest evangelicals, a majority are members.8

The generational challenge is real, but let’s not paint with too broad a brush. Younger adults may be less likely to join institutions, but many will gladly commit when the church offers clear teaching, trustworthy relationships, meaningful ways to serve, and a real reason to belong.

5. Distrust and Church Hurt Travel through the Front Door

Some attenders keep an exit door propped open because they have seen hypocrisy, abuse, scandal, manipulation, or bitter division. Pew’s 2025 research on religious switching found that among the religiously unaffiliated, 49 percent said dislike of religious organizations was an extremely or very important reason for their nonaffiliation, 49 percent cited distrust of religious leaders, and 34 percent cited bad experiences with religious people.9

Now, those numbers are about unaffiliated adults, not regular church attenders who haven’t joined, so we shouldn’t apply them too quickly. Still, they point out that many guests walk into our sanctuaries carrying a lot of baggage. For some, reluctance isn’t apathy—it’s self-protection. We won’t win them over with a harder sales pitch. Instead, we need to build trust with truth, transparency, patient relationships, accountable leadership, and steady care.

6. Consumer Habits Can Hollow Out Commitment

American consumer culture trains us to compare options, keep our options open, receive services, minimize obligations, and leave when preferences are not met. Churches can unintentionally reinforce that instinct when they present worship as an event, ministries as products, and leaders as providers. Thom Rainer has warned that a consumer posture asks what the church will do for me rather than how I will serve Christ and His people.10

The answer isn’t to make guests feel unwelcome—hospitality is a Christian virtue, after all. The real goal is to make the destination clear: we welcome people warmly so that, by God’s grace, spectators become disciples, guests become family, and consumers become servants.

7. Honest Housecleaning Makes Decline Look Worse before It Makes the Church Healthier

Sometimes, what looks like a sudden drop in membership is really just overdue honesty. As Scott McConnell points out, if your membership is more than four times your average attendance, it’s time to clean up the rolls.11 Removing the names of those who have passed away, moved, or can’t be found may shrink the numbers on paper, but it restores integrity to our reporting and helps us see who we’re truly called to shepherd.

Outlining the seven forces of the Ghost Roster, may add clarity, but doesn’t solve the problem. For that I’ve thought through seven ways to narrow the gap. Like anything worth doing, none of these are without its own unique challenges.

Action Playbook: Narrowing the Gap

• Measure four numbers honestly: total membership, active membership, average worship attendance, and regular nonmember attendance. Add separate categories for homebound members and others who are providentially hindered. The goal isn’t to make the numbers look good—it’s to get a truthful picture for shepherding.

• Teach covenant, not club membership. Preach and disciple from Acts 2:41–47, 1 Corinthians 5 and 12, Hebrews 10:24–25 and 13:17, and 1 Peter 5:1–4. Show how belonging, accountability, the ordinances, service, discipline, care, and mission fit together. Southern Baptists already confess that the local church is a covenant congregation.12

• Lower confusion and raise clarity. Make the membership path visible, accessible, and relational. Explain what the church believes, what members promise, what leaders promise, and what changes after someone joins. Lifeway’s research suggests that many nonmembers need a clear invitation more than a debate.13

• Conduct a shepherd’s audit in careful stages. Begin with deceased members and confirmed transfers, then people who have moved, people who cannot be found, and finally local nonattenders. Teach before acting, follow the church’s governing documents, document good-faith contact, and move at a pace that is both deliberate and pastoral.14

• Have real conversations with regular attenders who haven’t joined. Find the families who are already involved but haven’t taken the step. Ask, don’t assume: ‘What’s kept you from membership?’ Listen for missing information, past hurts, theological questions, scheduling issues, or hesitancy concerning accountability. Then respond to what’s actually holding them back.

• Build a shared-care structure. Assign members and regular attenders to pastors, elders, deacons, small-group leaders, or trained care teams according to the church’s polity. Shared ministry makes the flock more visible and prevents every need from flowing to one pastor.

• Celebrate every step toward covenant and review the roster regularly. Welcome new members in front of the church, share stories of service and discipleship, and make it a practice to review the roll every year. The best time to keep up with the roster is before it turns into a crisis.

None of these steps will give you instant results. But they will help your church tell the truth, care for people more faithfully, and turn that confusing gap into a real discipleship pathway.

Conclusion: Turn the Roster Back into People

A roster isn’t the church—it’s just a tool. But because every name represents a person, it ought to tell the truth about the congregation God has entrusted to us.

A full room is a blessing, not a problem. An inaccurate roll is a warning sign, not a death sentence. The answer isn’t a careless purge or a watered-down membership. It’s faithful shepherding: clear teaching, gracious invitation, patient trust-building, honest records, meaningful covenant, shared responsibility, and pastoral care that sees the person behind every name.

The Ghost Roster starts to lose its grip when absent members are lovingly pursued, regular attenders are clearly invited into covenant, and pastors remember they are under-shepherds, not saviors. Then the roster becomes more than a database—it becomes a living picture of a real church: believers who are known, loved, equipped, corrected, protected, and sent out together for the glory of Christ.

Endnotes

1.    Lifeway Research, “2025 SBC Annual Church Profile Statistical Summary,” May 2026, https://research.lifeway.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2025_ACP_Summary.pdf; Aaron Earls, “Southern Baptists See Attendance and Baptism Gains amid Membership Declines,” Lifeway Newsroom, May 5, 2026, https://news.lifeway.com/2026/05/05/southern-baptists-see-attendance-and-baptism-gains-amid-membership-declines/.

2.    Earls, “Southern Baptists See Attendance and Baptism Gains”; Lifeway Research, “2025 SBC Annual Church Profile Statistical Summary,” 1.

3.    Thom S. Rainer, “Seven Trends in the Way Churches Are Responding to Inactive Members,” Church Answers, March 25, 2019, https://churchanswers.com/blog/seven-trends-in-the-way-churches-are-responding-to-inactive-members/.

4.    Southern Baptist Convention, The Baptist Faith and Message 2000, sec. VI, “The Church,” https://bfm.sbc.net/bfm2000/.

5.    Lifeway Research and Ligonier Ministries, The State of Theology: Insights Report (2025), 16–18, https://research.lifeway.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/DIGITAL-State-of-Theology-Insights-Report.pdf.

6.    Aaron Earls, “Churchgoers Are Likely Also Church Members,” Lifeway Newsroom, November 12, 2024, https://news.lifeway.com/2024/11/12/churchgoers-are-likely-also-church-members/.

7.    Barna Group, “New Barna Data: Young Adults Lead a Resurgence in Church Attendance,” September 2, 2025, https://www.barna.com/research/young-adults-lead-resurgence-in-church-attendance/.

8.    Ryan Burge, “The Growing Gap in Church Membership,” Association of Religion Data Archives, April 2, 2026, https://www.thearda.com/categories/ahead-of-the-trend/the-growing-gap-in-church-membership.

9.    Pew Research Center, Why Do Some Americans Leave Their Religion While Others Stay? (December 15, 2025), 26, https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2025/12/PR_2025.12.15_us-religious-switching_report.pdf.

10.    Thom S. Rainer, I Am a Church Member: Discovering the Attitude That Makes the Difference (Nashville: B&H Publishing Group, 2013), 12–25.

11.    Earls, “Southern Baptists See Attendance and Baptism Gains.”

12.    Southern Baptist Convention, Baptist Faith and Message 2000, sec. VI.

13.    Earls, “Churchgoers Are Likely Also Church Members.”

14.    Matt Schmucker, “Cleaning Up the Rolls (Part 1),” 9Marks, February 26, 2010, https://www.9marks.org/article/cleaning-rolls/.